BRICS and the New Cold War: Towards a Multipolar World Order?

DOI: 10.58867/FDMA1346

The Western-centered global order established after the Second World War drifted towards the center of a new Cold War. The world is transitioning from an old to a new global order. With the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia, the traditional dominance of the West over the global order has been challenged, as never before. During this period of fluid shifts in the balance of power, could the BRICS, led by China and Russia, open the door to the possibility of a multipolar international order? Can the international system, which has become more polarized and blocked by the new Cold War, point to a new era with international alliances such as the BRICS?

The rise of BRICS in the global arena has sparked debate regarding its impact on the existing world order. The BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa is critical in shaping a multipolar world order.[1] In particular, after the global financial crisis in the U.S. in 2008, the importance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) in the global governance structure increased. As of 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined the BRICS.[2] This recent expansion reignited the ongoing debate on BRICS and its multipolarity. 

In this context, the BRICS is expected to serve as an alternative to global governance. It could allow member nations to collaborate in a different future, where their shared interests can advance globally. By utilizing their combined economic and political power, BRICS can create an option to promote cooperation among nations while simultaneously supporting stability and prosperity globally.

The ongoing global competitive struggle between the U.S. and China, as well as Russia's war in Ukraine, places BRICS expansion in a more global and ambitious context. In this context, BRICS is challenging the Western global order and demands a fair global order. On the other hand there is a risk of global stability, which could escalate into a new Cold War.

The BRICS countries have become significant players in the global economy. Their collective ascent has precipitated endeavors aimed at reforming existing international institutions. Of note, these efforts include the establishment of the New Development Bank (NDB), which serves as a vehicle for providing alternative financing avenues to support their respective developmental agendas. Such efforts aim to reduce their dependence on Western-dominated financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

These initiatives and their increasing involvement in regional and global governance issues demonstrate BRICS’s desire to challenge the existing power dynamics in the international system. Moreover, the BRICS countries are strengthening their economic ties through increased trade and investment. Therefore, BRICS’s demand for a multipolar global order is now felt much more in the global backdrop created by the new Cold War. The growing rapprochement of China and Russia based on BRICS and the new dynamics developed in the context of anti-U.S. opposition have become more visible with BRICS. While this new normal caused the new Cold War to deepen, it also made countries uncomfortable with the existing order to become a power focus with BRICS. BRICS promotes a multipolar world order and challenges the United States's and its allies' dominance. In this context, BRICS represents an essential force in shaping a new multipolar world order; however, it also faces various challenges and limitations in achieving its goals.

The New Cold War and the Expansion of BRICS

Founded in 2006, the BRICS held its first official summit in 2009. In 2010, BRICS grew with the accession of South Africa and reached a total of (10) members with its expansion in 2024. The total population of the newly expanded BRICS countries has reached approximately 3.5 billion, corresponding to roughly 44 percent of the world population. The total economic size has increased by about 30 trillion dollars, while the global financial share has risen to 28 percent. The daily oil production of BRICS members has increased to 45 million barrels and 45 percent of the global crude oil production.[3]

Given these figures, BRICS has become a reality that deserves global attention. The BRICS group is changing the world order by challenging the Western-dominated financial system and by offering an alternative framework.[4] The BRICS group has set its sights on the limited but significant transformation of the current global order. This group seeks to challenge the long-standing dominance of the Western-led financial system and offers a viable alternative framework that supports economic growth and development in emerging market economies. BRICS countries intend to promote greater cooperation and coordination among themselves and other developing nations to achieve a more equitable and inclusive international economic system.

The emergence of BRICS has changed power dynamics and made it stand out as a potential counterweight to traditional international financial institutions. As an emerging 21st-century element, the BRICS grouping emphasizes the need for a multipolar world order and advocates for the expansion of the UN Security Council and reforms in international financial institutions. With the emergence of a "new bipolarity" between the U.S. and China and the continued influence of Russia, the concept of multipolarity has gained traction.[5] The global order is transforming towards multipolarity, brought about by the emergence of new global powers such as China, India, and Brazil, and Russia's increasing influence due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 

In today's world, power is no longer solely concentrated among Western powers. The distribution of resources is not centralized; instead, they are spread across various centers. This has allowed countries, such as China and Russia, to gain significant influence on the global stage, posing a challenge to the existing world order. The concept of multipolarity is gaining traction in understanding and navigating this new global landscape.

The deepening trade wars between the U.S. and China, especially after 2018, have drawn global order into a new Cold War. The deepening of the U.S.'s efforts to reorganize its allies with the Biden era has led to a unique Cold War-like situation and the re-emergence of diplomatic approaches, such as blocking and risk aversion, among countries. 

In today's world, the rivalry between the United States and China has become increasingly important in the geopolitical climate. These two superpowers are engaged in a complex, multifaceted rivalry resembling a new Cold War. Both countries strive to use global trade routes as "geopolitical tools" to enhance their interests and deepen their influence. The primary battleground of this rivalry is the economic front, with both countries vying for dominance in various sectors such as technology, finance, and trade. The consequences of this competition are global and affect not only the two countries, but also their allies and trading partners. 

In this context, initiatives such as China's Belt and Road Initiative and the IMEC (India Middle East Corridor), which the U.S. has recently tried to project, are becoming geopolitical instruments for the new Cold War. The G20 summit saw the announcement of the IMEC initiative, which was significant in restructuring the global position of the BRICS and G20.

As John Mearsheimer states in his book The Great Delusion, "American leaders cannot know China's future intentions with certainty..."[6] The mentioned competition signifies an unpredictable future, while according to the U.S. National Security Strategy Papers, China and Russia are seen as "revisionist powers," posing a challenge to the United States. These documents accuse China and Russia of building a world that is antithetical to American values and also state that China is trying to push the U.S. out of the Indo-Pacific region.[7]

This approach, frequently mentioned by the U.S. and now perceived as a Chinese threat, has resulted in the widespread use of metaphors such as the "Thucydides Trap." Graham Allison argues that war between a rising and established power is likely "when power relations come into balance”.[8] The conflict between the United States and China is no longer a traditional war but rather a prolonged irregular warfare in which both sides aim to exhaust the other. This irregular warfare led to the emergence of the Hybrid Cold War.[9]

BRICS and Multipolar Global Order

When we examine the primary energy and trade routes across the globe, it becomes apparent that new BRICS members are of immense significance. Moreover, it is common knowledge that as many as 40 other countries are interested in joining the BRICS.[10] Of these, 23 had already expressed a desire to become a part of this group. At the last BRICS summit in South Africa, where BRICS decided to expand, China and Russia's discussions on the multipolar world once again left their mark on the agenda. Although India has a non-aligned position, it supports the BRICS agenda and has not developed rhetoric against the multipolar world discourse that has emerged with the expansion.

Whether this expansion will pave the way for a de-dollarization-like process is debatable. Still, it is known that Russia, in particular is inclined to use national currencies in trade and encourage other countries to do the same.[11] Still, BRICS shows the Global South’s tendency to participate more in the current global order and to have a say. Although the coordination of BRICS and communication among its members are not at the desired level as of the current period, it is evident that the general demand of China and Russia, which constitute the center of gravity, is a "multipolar global order." These countries have often expressed this demand.[12] China supports the centralized position of the UN, but wants it to be more functional.

BRICS’s economic growth and cooperation have the potential to reshape global governance and challenge global dominance in the United States.[13] The formation of institutions such as the New Development Bank has led to further clarification of the trend and its forward-looking ambition. While there is little evidence that BRICS intends to overhaul the existing global order, it is poised to play a vital role in reforming the global financial system and shaping the new development agenda. Some even see the BRICS as a balancing coalition in the financial world.[14] The expansion of BRICS membership and development of a new financial system have accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world order.[15]

However, the extent to which BRICS can assume a global leadership role depends on addressing the internal fragilities and conflicting interests.[16] BRICS countries play a central role in the transition to multipolarity in the global system, as they represent some of the world's most promising and dynamic economies and the collective leaders of the Global South. However, it is worth noting that China, Russia, and India have different visions within this group. Countries such as India oppose BRICS as a geopolitical instrument in the struggle for global competitiveness.

The global order faces a complex and multifaceted organic crisis, resulting in a global interregnum.[17] This crisis is characterized by a wide range of ecological, social, economic, and political challenges that are interconnected and often mutually reinforcing. The key issues driving this crisis include climate change, environmental degradation, social inequality, political instability, and economic uncertainty. The interregnum we are experiencing is marked by uncertainty and unpredictability as old systems and structures break down, while new ones struggle to emerge. China envisioned that BRICS countries could play a complementary role in addressing what it perceives as a "problematic" global order. Notably, BRICS, seen as an alternative to existing international forums such as the G20, has become increasingly controversial.

Conclusions

China and Russia aim for a multipolar global order to build on existing institutions and to provide a platform for others to have a voice. The BRICS alliance also supports the idea of a multipolar world order at the discursive level and challenges the global dominance of the United States and its allies. While there are challenges and limitations in achieving these goals, BRICS represents a significant force in shaping the new multipolar world order. Although the grouping has coordination problems, the trend towards a multipolar global order is evident.

The U.S. and Western-centered structure containment of China has led to a new global normal, which aligns countries such as China and Russia in an intense anti-Western position. The economic size of the enlarged BRICS region are significant developments. While BRICS is not very prominent in this transitional phase and the synchronization among its members is currently low, it is a crucial key to the imagination of a multipolar global order in the future.

BRICS faces the challenge of maintaining a balance between non-alignment and multipolarity. Countries such as India have mainly contributed to this balance through neutral foreign policy. The U.S. is trying to deepen its intensified "containment strategy" and labeling China as a "strategic threat." The U.S. also attempted to strengthen its alliances and partners in this effort. China and Russia aimed to break through this siege by establishing a multipolar international system at the discursive level. The opposing positions of the West and mechanisms such as BRICS and SCO create a new Cold War-like environment.

The traditional balance of power in the world is changing, and new alliances have been formed. The BRICS countries are gaining economic and political influence. While the intellectual, economic, and institutional capacity to build a multipolar world is yet to emerge fully, this trend is becoming increasingly evident.