Strategic Vision for the Membership of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in BRICS

DOI: 10.58867/XDXY3882

On 1 January  2024, the BRICS group announced the invitation of six new countries to join its membership, including both the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. While obtaining membership in such associations and organizations, whether with a security or economic focus, is a goal pursued by many countries, especially if those associations hold significant economic weight, it has sparked debate about the relationship between the parties. BRICS is a grouping of several countries united by common interests, but among its goals is "confronting the dominance of the U.S. dollar" in the global economy, which implies a restructuring of the global system itself, especially since among its members are what can be called "anti-Western" countries in general, including Russia and China. Gulf countries have security partnerships and diverse areas of economic cooperation with Western countries, foremost among them the United States, which is a long-term target for BRICS policies. So, how can this dilemma be understood?

Determinants of the Accession of the Arab Gulf countries to Regional & Global Economic Blocs

There are three determinants that explain the Arabian Gulf countries' pursuit of joining regional and international blocs. Firstly, the Arabian Gulf countries are classified as small and medium-sized states, necessitating them to adopt three security options: achieving self-security, which remains linked to the size of the state; non-alignment, yet remaining an active option if adhered to by other parties, especially those sharing regional affiliations with the Arabian Gulf countries; and establishing international partnerships. While these partnerships primarily have security dimensions, they also entail areas for economic cooperation given the close linkage between security and economy. As oil and gas-producing countries, the Arabian Gulf countries have Western partners who are among the consumers. Therefore, the importance of partnership options is tied to regional and global power balances, mandating diversification of these partnerships, even from an economic perspective.[1]

Secondly, any single state alone cannot address current challenges facing the world, whether economic, security-related, or pertaining to climate change and food security. They require greater coordination within larger frameworks such as the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League. Among these blocs that the Arabian Gulf countries seek to join in various capacities are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the BRICS bloc, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.[2]

Thirdly, the emergence of oil's influence in the international relations equation is notable, as BRICS countries produce 44 percent of the world's total crude oil.[3] Certainly, significant oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in such a grouping allow for coordination on oil production levels and maintaining an appropriate price for this strategic commodity in global markets. The OPEC Plus alliance, established in 2016 by OPEC and ten oil-producing countries outside the organization, including Russia, presents a significant experience in coordinating oil policies and maintaining a suitable price for producers in global markets. This experience could enhance cooperation between the Gulf countries and BRICS countries on the same issue.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Vision to Join BRICS Membership

 Taking into account the nature of the BRICS as an economic and political bloc, the accession of some Gulf Arab countries to this grouping does not signify their intention to replace partnerships with Western countries, as reflected in the official Emirati discourse articulated by Abdullah Al Marri, the Minister of Economy of the UAE, who stated, "The decision of the UAE to join BRICS is based on economic considerations and not political ones." He added, "We are not living in a cold war, and joining this bloc is part of cooperation among southern countries, and the UAE will always engage with the West." [4]

The Saudi official vision aligns with that of the UAE. Despite no official Saudi confirmation regarding the Kingdom's final decision to join BRICS at the time of writing this paper, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, commented on the issue by stating, "The BRICS group is not against America or the West." He added, "How the group will work towards phasing out the use of the dollar will be a crucial matter for policymakers in the Arab Gulf countries."[5]  These statements by high-ranking officials in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia underscore an important reality: the partnership of Arab Gulf countries with Western nations is a strategic matter despite occasional differences in perspectives on certain issues. Therefore, pursuing some Arab Gulf countries to join blocs comprising countries seen as competitors to Western states does not imply a desire to replace their partnerships with the United States with other parties. Instead, this could be interpreted as a calculated economic maneuver.

The Importance of the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Joining the BRICS

 BRICS is a significant economic bloc. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, BRICS contributed around 28.3 percent to the global economy in 2023. It controls about 20 percent of global trade and approximately 25 percent of the world's land area. BRICS aims to achieve global economic balance by reducing the dollar hegemony. The bloc's importance increases, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirming that "there are 30 countries interested in establishing relations with the bloc." With the expansion of BRICS to include ten countries, the population of the bloc will exceed 3.625 billion people, nearly half of the world's population, compared to approximately 40 percent before the addition of these countries.[6]

Therefore, considering the economic transformation in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia through ambitious economic visions, there are gains they can achieve. In this context, Abdullah Al Marri, the UAE Minister of Economy, stated that "there are many economic gains for the UAE from joining this group, including supporting foreign investment attraction, enhancing economic competitiveness, supporting non-oil exports, and facilitating the UAE's access to global markets."[7]As for Saudi Arabia, joining this group would open up investment opportunities in both traditional and non-traditional energy sectors, in addition to finding new sources of funding for economic diversification projects, a key aspect of Saudi Vision 2030. Given the importance of the oil-rich kingdom, it would also play a pivotal role in the global energy sector through BRICS.[8] Furthermore, there would be an increase in trade exchanges with BRICS countries and diversification of international economic partnerships. BRICS countries like China and India could provide added value to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia. China could offer significant investment opportunities through the Belt and Road Initiative.

On the other hand, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE could expand economic partnerships with India, opening up new investment prospects. This aligns with India's strategy of targeting the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. Additionally, the economic corridor proposal between India, the Middle East, and Europe could increase opportunities for Arab Gulf countries. Moreover, if the importance and role of BRICS increase, it could achieve a balance with the G7 industrialized nations, enhancing the benefits for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council as a regional organization. Undoubtedly, having a multipolar international economic system would be beneficial for Arab Gulf countries.[9] On another note, it's important to consider the political context of the UAE and Saudi Arabia's pursuit of joining this bloc. This includes heightened U.S.-China competition and noticeable tension in Saudi Arabia's relations with the U.S. during President Biden's administration. While China is not a security player in the Arabian Gulf region, it has played a significant role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[10]

Challenges facing the UAE and Saudi Arabia within the BRICS Membership

Despite the economic partnership's significance for both the UAE and Saudi Arabia within BRICS, debates about the group's ability to achieve its main goal of confronting the dominance of the dollar in the global economy continue to attract researchers' attention. There are doubts about the feasibility of achieving this goal, considering the difficulty of implementing mechanisms such as issuing a unified currency as an alternative to the dollar, which still dominates 70 percent of international financial transactions. Moreover, the United States remains a major partner for Arab Gulf countries in existing projects, unlike BRICS projects, which are still proposals.

Secondly, assuming that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia affirm their purely economic objectives from this membership, the current international reality witnesses a fierce competition, making it difficult to differentiate between economic objectives and political dimensions. Western countries may perceive those states opposing Western policies seek to attract Arab Gulf countries, even from an economic perspective, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine.[11]

Thirdly, given the United States' continued role as a primary guarantor of the security of Arab Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the strategic importance of these two countries, they must balance their security interests with the expected economic benefits of BRICS membership. This membership might send a message to the United States that both countries desire to diversify partnerships, even in the long run. This is particularly significant considering some obstacles facing Arab Gulf countries in acquiring military technology and the nature of security challenges, including food security, which requires diversification of international partnerships as a lesson learned from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic.[12]

Conclusions

Despite the significance of the strategic partnership between the Arab Gulf countries and Western nations, particularly the United States, some Gulf states have observed an effort to diversify their economic partnerships, especially seeking membership in certain economic blocs, but in a balanced manner alongside their traditional partnerships. This is a result of the current global system's transformations, occasional tensions in Gulf-U.S. relations, and the emergence of challenges that no single state can confront alone. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia stand to gain economic benefits from joining the BRICS group, the political and security benefits remain contingent on the evolution of the bloc itself and its ability to achieve consensus among its members, considering the bounds of change in U.S. policy towards its Gulf partners.