Middle East in Focus: From the Arab Spring to the Gulf Crisis

From the Desk of the Editor

This issue of TPQ takes up a myriad of issues that the Middle East is grappling with today: from protracted conflicts and the increasing complexity of proxy wars, to changing regional blocs and emerging powers. The Arab uprisings of 2011 remain an important fulcrum for the changing political landscape of the Middle East, and as many of our authors contend, the underlying problems and basic drivers of the revolutions still exist today. The Syrian conflict – a hotbed of competing...

Süreya Martha Köprülü | 14 December 2017

Palestinian Realities and the Peace Imperative

In a wide-ranging interview, Dr. Hanan Ashrawi reflects on 50 years of Israel’s occupation of Palestine, internal PLO dynamics, Israel’s culture of impunity, and her pressing concerns about the future of the two-state solution. Dr. Ashrawi, who was a key negotiator for the Palestinians during the Madrid Peace Conference and the Oslo Accords, explains that the US’ monopoly over the peace process – which was ultimately driven by Israeli interests – made it a flawed...

Hanan Ashrawi | 14 December 2017

The Trump Administration and Global Security

US President Donald Trump has distinguished himself from his predecessors in many respects; his style of leadership has sent shockwaves both through the Washington establishment and the international community. However, despite his often controversial and fiery foreign policy rhetoric, the author argues that Trump’s actions have not fallen outside of the parameters of traditional American foreign policy, and even hew close to that of former President Obama. The author argues that the...

James F. Jeffrey | 14 December 2017

The Arab Spring Seven Years On: Failure or Just the Beginning?

Using the 1789 French Revolution as a blueprint, scholar Crane Briton observed a pattern in four historic revolutions and identified four distinct phases: the rule of the moderates; the reign of terror and virtue; Thermidor; and the end of the revolution. Although seemingly incomparable at first, in this article the author identifies a number of similarities between the French Revolution and the Arab Revolutions: both stemmed from a younger generation aspiring for more political freedom and...

Koert Debeuf | 14 December 2017

Turkey’s Forays into the Middle East

For most of the 20th century, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) rarely appeared on Turkey’s radar as anything other than a source of threats. The Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) 2002 ascension to power changed this, and Turkey increasingly began to turn toward MENA, especially as its prospects of joining the EU waned. Politically, Ankara pursued a “zero problems in the neighborhood” approach, forging strong commercial ties and mediating in disputes. The...

Dimitar Bechev & Joost Hiltermann | 14 December 2017

EU-GCC Relations and the Risk of Irrelevance

Ever since the launch of the multilateral framework at the end of the 1980s, EU-GCC relations have experienced many ups and downs, although a marked downward trend has most recently kicked in. Within the framework of new regional circumstances following the outbreak of the Arab uprisings, EU-GCC relations run the risk of becoming totally irrelevant. This is due to growing polarization within the GCC itself and the emergence of (so far competing) EU-Iran relations despite still existing...

Silvia Colombo | 14 December 2017

The GGC Crisis: Regional Realignment or Paralysis?

The rupturing of diplomatic relations between Qatar and four regional states – Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in June 2017 brought to a head a long-simmering dispute about Qatar’s distinctive approach to regional affairs. Six months into the crisis, it remains unclear what the Saudi and Emirati endgame is and what, if any, concessions Qatar could make would be enough for policymakers in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. In this article, the author argues...

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen | 14 December 2017

The Gulf Crisis and a Pariah’s Fling with Islamism

For years the Gulf states have been at war through proxies, each side betting on the revolution it wants to drive, with Qatar leaning heavily toward Islamists in every case. For the anti-Qatar quartet, the Gulf crisis is a direct result of Doha’s support for Islamist movements across the region. The determination of the countries opposed to Qatar is that only by addressing issues at home can the Gulf Cooperation Counil (GCC) unite under one front and tackle larger regional issues,...

Ola Salem | 14 December 2017

Islamist Actors After the 2011 Arab Uprisings

The Arab Spring engulfed most of the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa, starting in 2011. Erupting first in Tunisia and later spreading to other countries in the region, the uprisings have illustrated that the borders of the Arab Middle East are permeable. The public rallies that called for better living standards, crackdowns on corruption, and a narrowing of the socio-economic gap evolved into a call for political reform, and destabilized the incumbent regimes. In this article,...

Nur Köprülü | 14 December 2017

Iran’s Post-ISIS Regional Strategy

Ever since the eight year-long Iran-Iraq war, the challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran have been nominal compared to the threats the latest crises in both Syria and Iraq posed. The ruling elite in Tehran saw the 2011 revolution in Syria and the fall of Iraq’s Mosul in 2014 as an existential threat that required direct intervention – although later this threat was transformed into an opportunity. In this article, the author argues that Iranian intervention in both countries...

Ali Hashem | 14 December 2017

Syria at a Crossroads: “A Peace to End All Peace”?

For the first time in almost seven years, the Syrian conflict is approaching what seems to be the start of its conclusion. Syria is presently at a crossroads; what happens in the weeks and months ahead will determine the Syrian endgame. If change is deep, serious, and committed, it might bring hope for a new Syria. If superficial, however it can – and will – lead to an even more explosive situation. In this article, the author argues that the outcome will be determined by a basket of...

Ibrahim Hamidi | 14 December 2017

What Would a US Withdrawal from the Iran Deal Mean for the Regional Order?

After about 20 months of arduous negotiations, Iran, the P5+1, and the EU signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015 ending one of the gravest concerns of the region and the world – the development of Iranian nuclear weapons. Initially, under the Obama administration, the parties praised the deal as a win-win solution. Now, under the Trump administration, the deal looks fragile as the president has threatened to unilaterally withdraw the US from the agreement. This...

Saeid Jafari | 14 December 2017

Cyber Defense at NATO: From Wales to Warsaw, and Beyond

Euro-Atlantic security continues to confront the challenges of an emergent and unstable cyberspace, characterized by a diverse landscape of risks. From its technical beginnings, NATO’s evolutionary approach to addressing this challenge remains in motion, shaped by an increasingly challenging threat landscape, diverse political climate, and evolving technology. This article seeks to describe the salient features of NATO’s approach to tackling the emerging security challenge of cyber...

Neil Robinson | 14 December 2017

The Right to Respond? States and the Cyber Arena

This policy paper describes the range of possible classifications of state-sponsored cyber operations and the lawful responses that states targeted by them can take. Based on this assessment, the paper recommends that these findings be integrated into national cyber strategies that can more effectively counter state-sponsored cyberthreats and operations. In most situations, a state targeted by state-sponsored cyber operations is not entitled to invoke the right of self-defense to use force...

François Delerue | 14 December 2017

Navigating the Cyber Storm

Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) convened a discussion to parse cybersecurity trends amid the increasing geopolitical dimensions and the frequency of cyber attacks across the world. The core of the discussion focused on the cyber defense capabilities and resilience of the NATO Alliance, after which important perspectives from Estonia, Israel, and Turkey were provided. The speakers emphasized that the ambiguity of the risks posed by cyberspace and the lack of a body of international laws in the...

TPQ Event Analysis | 14 December 2017

Middle East in Focus: From the Arab Spring to the Gulf CrisisVol. 16 No. 3 - Fall 2017

Middle East in Focus: From the Arab Spring to the Gulf Crisis
Vol. 16 No. 3 - Fall 2017