Regime Stability in Azerbaijan, Winter 2014

Despite predictions of a fourth wave of democratization and the assumption that socio-economic development would lead to democratization, Azerbaijan has consolidated a political system with authoritarian features. This article identifies both the domestic pillars of stability –the ability to spend, repress, and create patronage networks as a result of significant hydrocarbon revenues– and the international apathy that have produced this remarkable political stability. It concludes by arguing that the current strategies to create stability and legitimacy are likely to be unsustainable. Therefore, in the next few years it will be crucial for Azerbaijan to introduce reforms to gradually make the country more democratic, as well as encourage the population to make a living independently, so the economy can be diversified and sustained by taxes.