The Future of Iraq, Winter 2002

Wednesday, February 5, 2003 | Download PDF in English

This paper analyzes the implications of an ethnically divided Federation of Iraq. Regional implications, problems within “Kurdistan,” minority concerns and the revival of Islamism will be taken into consideration in analyzing security issues that arise vis-à-vis the creation of such an entity. Taken together, the study demonstrates that given U.S. and neighboring countries’ interests, a future Federation of Iraq based on ethnic lines would be ominous to the future of the Middle East. More specifically, the analysis argues that under the given circumstances a federation would likely lead to a war between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds, convergence of Iranian-Turkish security interests, a power vacuum susceptible to conflict, and the revival of Islamism.

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CONTRIBUTOR

Yola Habif

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