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According to the authors many Europeans believe that if Turkey were to become an EU member state there would be large numbers of Turks immigrating to EU. It is estimated that there are approximately 3.6 million Turkish nationals living abroad of which about 3.2 million are in European countries. Some studies predict a flow of migrants (between 1.3 to 2.7 million) from Turkey to the EU until 2030. The authors argue that prospects of EU accession will not eliminate immigration from Turkey; however, the context, the number and the composition of Turkish immigration will be very different than what it has been so far. Given the importance of the EU as an anchor in Turkish politics and for the economy, it is quite likely that migration might be greater and of a more difficult sort if the prospects of membership is lost.

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Kemal Kirişçi
Kemal Kirişçi
Umut Kuzubaş
Umut Kuzubaş
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Foreword TPQ’s Summer issue, NATO in 2020 and Beyond: New Strategies and Frontiers, offers insights on the Alliance’s current challenges and future security trends, while offering a look into Euro-Atlantic relations in the coming decade. It is clear that as the international security landscape is rapidly changing, member states’ capabilities, resilience, and most importantly, their...
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